Закономерности динамики численности вредителей и фитосанитарный прогноз

Abstract

The forecast of the phytosanitary state in plant protection is considered as a probabilistic, scientifically based judgment about the population dynamics of harmful objects in the future, based on identified patterns in the past. Moreover, the reliability and accuracy of forecasts depend on the degree of knowledge of the factors responsible for population dynamics of the forecasting object. Our analysis of the results obtained during the long-term investigations conducted in the VIZR devoted to the studies of the population dynamics of particularly dangerous pests, including those studies , applying the life table construction, as well as world and local literature on this problem, indicates the leading role of biocenotic regulation in the population dynamics of harmful arthropods. Although, unlike natural biogeocenoses, agrobiocenoses arose as a result of human activities, they also exist as complicated evolving systems. Obviously, one of the main directions of their evolution is the formation and strengthening of mechanisms that ensure the ability to self-regulate, that is, to stabilize the dynamic equilibrium of elements belonging to different trophic groups. Accordingly, the relative contribution of climatic factors into the population dynamics of harmful objects is gradually weaken. Obviously, the progress in the field of phytosanitary forecasts that meet the requirements of convergence, reliability, quality and accuracy should fully consider the effects of regulatory mechanisms, and not so much as a refinement or correcting factor, but rather as a key prognostic criterion.