Forecasting the SAM Index Value Using Fourier Series and Neural Networks

Abstract

The article presents the results of forecasting the SAM index using tools such as a recurrent neural network and Fourier series-based model. The experiments revealed that these forecasting methods unfortunately had a high percentage of error, suggesting the impracticality of this approach. However, the task of forecasting the SAM index remains highly relevant and requires the exploration of new solutions. Currently, the amount of krill biomass in the waters of Antarctica is estimated to be between 300 million and 500 million tons. Russia plans to start krill fishing at the end of 2023, with a specially designed vessel for operations in the Antarctic region. Krill harvesting is part of Russia's strategy for the development of the fishing industry until 2030, including the implementation of the comprehensive project 'Marine Biotechnologies,' focusing on Antarctic krill harvesting. The annual krill catch is projected to reach 450 thousand tons. To achieve these goals, scientifically grounded forecasting mechanisms for indicators directly or indirectly indicating the presence of krill biomass in planned fishing areas need to be developed.